CL New York Crude Oil – Uncertainty Surrounds US-Iran Talks, Oil Prices May Rebound

Oil prices fell on Tuesday, with US crude down 4.66% to settle at $88.94; investors focused on signs of a recovery in Middle Eastern oil exports. According to trade sources and shipping data, Saudi Arabia has resumed loading tankers from the Red Sea port of Yanbu after the East-West pipeline resumed operation, improving the outlook for Middle Eastern oil exports. U.S. President Trump stated that he had not made any conditions to Iran to end the war and denied reports that Iran, citing U.S. officials, was willing to ease sanctions and unfreeze funds in exchange for “concrete" actions by Iran on its nuclear program. Furthermore, sources said the White House has urged the EU to use its emergency diesel reserves to lower global prices, and the Trump administration stated that several EU member states have not released the promised amount of oil and refined products from their reserves. According to two people familiar with the discussions, Trump is considering easing regulations to allow wider sales of red-dyed diesel as one measure to curb soaring prices. The sources indicated that this move could exempt some buyers from federal fuel taxes, and the proposal has become a major alternative to the diesel export ban.

Technical charts show that the RSI and Stochastic Oscillator have rebounded from oversold territory, suggesting continued upward momentum in oil prices. Resistance is estimated at $91.30 and $94.80, with the next levels at 96.80 and 98 USD. The next key level is at the top of the gap down from last week, namely the low of $99.10 on September 17th. After filling the gap, the expected upside could extend to the key levels of $100 and $102.50. Key support is expected at the 50-day moving average of $88.30, and another key level is the upward trendline at $86.10, which also coincides with the 100-day moving average. Be aware that if this area is also breached, oil prices will likely test lower levels further, with subsequent support expected at $85 and $83.40.

Forecasted Range:
Resistance: 91.30 – 94.80 – 96.80 - 98.00 – 99.10* - 100.00
Support: 88.30* - 86.10* - 85.00 – 83.40

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