CL New York Crude Oil – Market Assessing Potential Supply Risks, Oil Prices Bottoming Out and Rebounding

U.S. President Trump announced immediate tariffs of 25% on any country doing business with Iran. This move comes as Washington closely monitors Tehran's response to massive anti-government protests. Trump outlined the new economic sanctions in a post on the social media platform Truth Social. The new tariffs are described as a response to the Iranian government's handling of the recent nationwide demonstrations. Hundreds of protesters have reportedly been killed in more than two weeks of demonstrations fueled by economic hardship and other grievances. Earlier this month, Trump stated that the US would "come to the rescue" if Iran "violently kills peaceful protesters."

Trump's announcement of 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran directly threatens Iranian crude oil exports and could trigger a global supply shortage. New York crude oil futures briefly touched a near one-month high of $59.99. Technically, oil prices have repeatedly been constrained by the 50-day moving average in recent months, making this indicator a key resistance level. A preliminary breakout has been observed, with a strong chance of reversing the recent downward trend. The estimated resistance level is $60, with further support at the 100-day moving average at $60.30 and $62.60, followed by $65. Near-term support is expected at $58.40 and $56.70, with the next levels at $55.70 and $55, and then $54.50.

Forecast range:
Resistance: 60.00* – 60.30 – 62.60 – 65.00
Support: 58.40 - 56.70 - 55.70 - 55.00 – 54.50

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