CL New York Crude Oil – Oil Prices Retreat as OPEC Says Supply and Demand Will Balance in 2026

Oil prices fell more than $2 on Wednesday after OPEC released a report stating that global oil supply will be in line with demand in 2026, marking a further shift in its forecast from a supply shortage to a supply-demand balance. U.S. crude settled at $58.49 a barrel, down $2.55, or 4.18%, after rising 1.5% in the previous session. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) indicated that due to increased production from OPEC+, global oil supply will be in line with demand next year. Previously, the organization had predicted a supply shortage in 2026.

Technical charts show that the RSI and Stochastic Oscillator have declined, and the MACD indicator has also broken below the signal line. Oil prices have recently been capped by the 50-day moving average, so if a break below this level is not achieved in the short term, it appears that downward pressure is brewing. The immediate support level is around $58, with the next levels at $56.30 and the May 5th low of $55.30, followed by $54. Resistance is estimated at the $60 level and the 50-day moving average at $61.30; the next levels are expected to be $62.90 and the 100-day moving average at $63.40.

Forecast Range:
Resistance: 60.00 - 61.30* – 62.90 – 63.40
Support: 58.90 – 56.30 – 55.30 – 54.00

This Week's News: OPEC changes its forecast, predicting a slight oil surplus in 2026.

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