CL New York Crude Oil – Oil Prices Consolidate at High Levels as Market Assesses Geopolitical Risks

New York April crude oil futures remained near a six-month high, down slightly by 0.26% on Tuesday to $66.31, having reached a high of $67.28. The US and Iran announced they will hold the third round of nuclear talks in Geneva on Thursday. Iran hinted at a willingness to make concessions in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, which eased geopolitical tensions to some extent. However, the risk of military conflict remains. On the other hand, after the US Supreme Court overturned a key part of Trump's tariff plan, Trump immediately announced an increase in temporary tariffs from 10% to 15%, exacerbating policy uncertainty and market concerns, dragging down stocks and putting pressure on the oil market.

It is expected that short-term oil price movements will be more driven by news; therefore, without a directional breakthrough in fundamental news, oil prices are expected to continue to trade within a range. As seen in the technical charts, the nearest support levels are $66 and $65. Key support levels below are the uptrend line held since the beginning of the year, currently at $63.10, and the 200-day moving average at $61. A break below this level would disrupt the overall upward structure for oil prices this year. Resistance is estimated at $67.20 and $68, with the next levels at $70 and $71.80.

Forecast range:
Resistance: $67.20 – $68.00 - $70.00 – $71.80
Support: $66.00 - $65.00 – $63.10* – $61.00*
 

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