Gold – Hawkish Fed Meeting Sends Stronger Dollar, Pressures Gold Prices

The World Gold Council released its 2026 Global Central Bank Gold Reserve Survey this week. 89% of surveyed central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months. The percentage of central banks planning to increase their gold holdings is at a record high. The report notes that gold has recently surpassed U.S. Treasury bonds to become the world's largest official reserve asset, and central banks' reserve allocation plans reflect a strong preference for gold. Furthermore, 83% of surveyed central banks believe that gold's share of total reserves will further increase in five years, a significant increase from 76% last year. The report concludes that, based on various survey data, gold's strategic importance in central bank reserve asset portfolios continues to rise.

Gold prices fell on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% but clearly signaled further rate hikes this year, pushing up the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. Meanwhile, the imminent signing of a peace agreement framework between the US and Iran significantly reduced safe-haven demand, prompting a noticeable pullback in gold prices due to profit-taking pressure at higher levels. This Federal Reserve policy meeting was Warsh's first since taking office. While maintaining the current interest rate was in line with market expectations, the post-meeting statement and dot plot were clearly hawkish, with several officials hinting at a rising possibility of further policy tightening this year as inflation risks have not completely subsided. Warsh emphasized that "price stability" will be the core objective of the Fed's future policy. According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, the market's expectation of a December rate hike has risen to approximately 83%, up from 61% before the decision.

Technically, the 50-week moving average at $4264 should be watched. A clear breakout has not been made in the past three trading days. If this level is broken, a period of stabilization is possible. The 25-week moving average at $4704 is a significant short-term resistance level, while $4633 and the monthly dividing line at $4554 are key levels for any upward movement. Furthermore, the descending parallel channel mentioned last week was encountered and rebounded on Thursday morning. Using the key August 2025 levels of $3311 and $5602 as a 50% retracement level, we can determine the support level at $4457, which then becomes resistance. Using the two opening prices, a 50% retracement level would be resistance at $4379. Alternatively, using the March 23rd low and the mid-April high of $4891, plus the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement from Thursday's low, we can determine resistance at $4359 and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $4454.

London gold is expected to trade within the range of $4279-$4339. The supporting levels will be seen at $4253 and $4228, with stronger support at $4178 and $41747. Extended resistance levels are at $4391 and $4417, with the next levels estimated at $4443 and $4524.

London gold, June 18:
Forecast range: 4279 – 4339
Resistance: 4391 – 4417 – 4443 – 4524
Support: 4253 – 4228 – 4178 – 4147

SPDR Gold Trust Gold Holdings:
June 8 – 1,019.92 tons
June 9 – 1,016.50 tons
June 10 – 1,013.64 tons
June 11 – 1,013.64 tons
June 12 – 1,013.64 tons
June 15 – 1,012.21 tons
June 16 – 1,012.21 tons
June 17 – 1,013.07 tons

17/6 AM London Gold Fix: $4331.85 
17/6 PM London Gold Fix: $4341.85 

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