GOLD - U.S. employment data slows gold price gains, outlook remains bullish

The U.S. dollar fell from a more than two-month high last week to a one-week low on Friday, amid growing expectations that the Fed will give up on raising interest rates this month. A number of Fed officials have recently expressed support for skipping a rate hike at this month's policy meeting. Market bets on the probability of a rate hike quickly cooled, to about 25 percent on Friday from nearly 70 percent earlier last week. At the same time, the U.S. Congress passed the debt ceiling agreement and was ready for President Biden to sign before the Monday deadline to avoid a catastrophic U.S. default, which also took another support for the dollar. The dollar index eased back to 103.38 after touching 104.70 on Wednesday, its highest since March 16. However, after the release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday night, the dollar regained some stability. Data show that the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by 339,000 in May, an increase far exceeding the expected 190,000. 3.5% and 3.4%; the annual rate of hourly wages in May rose by 4.3%, slightly lower than the expected and previous value of 4.4%. By this week, the market will usher in the service industry PMI indexes of China, Japan, Europe and the United States, and the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada will announce interest rate decisions on Tuesday and Wednesday.

As for the gold, the chart shows that the gold price formed a downward trend line in May, and an initial breakthrough was seen last Wednesday, technically the downward trend can be reversed. The RSI and stochastic index are forming a small double bottom in the oversold area, and the corresponding price has formed a technical divergence and has rebounded significantly. It is expected that the gold price will rise again. Calculated by the golden ratio, the rebound rate of 38.2% is 1985 US dollars, and the expansion to 50% and 61.8% is 2002 and 2019 US dollars. The key level will point to 2050. As for the lowest support, look back at the 100-day moving average at $1,938, and the largerst support is at the $1,920 to $1,900 points.

SPDR Gold Trust Gold Holdings:
May 22 – 943.89 tons
May 23 – 941.29 tons
May 24 – 941.29 tons
May 25 – 941.29 tons
May 26 – 941.29 tons
May 29 – 941.29 tons
May 30 – 939.56 tons
May 31 – 939.56 tons
June 1 – 938.11 tons
June 2 – 938.11 tons

Fixing price on the morning of June 2: 1981.00
Fixing price in the afternoon of June 2: 1963.25

London Gold June 5th – June 9th Forecast Volatility:
Resistance Levels: 1952 – 1973 – 1988 – 2004
Supported bits: 1936 – 1921 – 1901 – 1875

London Gold June 5
Forecasting early swings: 1943 – 1956
Resistance Levels: 1965 – 1978 – 1992
Support levels: 1929 – 1920 – 1902




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