NZD - NZD capped by modest jobs data, rate hike expectations

The New Zealand dollar is capped by the expectation of raising interest rates slightly due to the employment data

Data from New Zealand showed signs of easing in a tight labor market, reinforcing concerns that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may not have to raise interest rates as aggressively as previously forecast. The data showed that the unemployment rate in New Zealand rose to 3.4% in the last quarter, which is expected to be stable at 3.3%; the Bank of New Zealand had predicted that the unemployment rate would be 3.2%. In addition, last week's data showed that New Zealand's inflation rate has peaked, which strengthened the central bank's interest rate hike to 50 basis points later this month. 5.5%.

For New Zealand dollar against the US dollar, the technical chart also shows that the RSI and the stochastic index are falling, and the MACD indicator has just fallen below the signal line. After the exchange rate was blocked at the 0.65 points last month, it is estimated that the adjustment pressure on the New Zealand dollar will intensify. Based on the cumulative increase from October to December last year, the 38.2% callback level is 0.6130, and the expansion to 50% and 61.8% is 0.6010 and 0.5895 levels. As for the resistance level, we will continue to pay attention to the 0.6530 level, and the next level will refer to the 200-week moving average of 0.6620 to 0.68.

Estimated volatility:
Resistance 0.6530 – 0.6620 – 0.6800
Support 0.6130 - 0.6010 - 0.5895






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