JPY Japanese yen - Japanese yen remains weak, warning of intervention risks

The dollar rose to an 11-month high of 149.72 yen on Wednesday but has since retreated slightly from the high. The yen is also expected to be affected by soaring oil prices. On Wednesday, oil prices hit their highest settlement since 2023, with a sharp drop in U.S. crude inventories exacerbating concerns about tight global supplies. As the exchange rate gets closer to 150, Japanese Finance Minister Shuni Suzuki said on Thursday that Japan would not rule out any options to deal with excessive exchange rate fluctuations. He reiterated his warning about the speculative yen trend.

As for the U.S. dollar against the yen, regarding technical trends, the RSI and stochastic index are in the overbought zone and have initially revealed some signs of a pullback. We must be careful of the risk of a retreat in the U.S. dollar against the yen. We will first pay attention to 148.80 and the 25-day moving average of 147.40 for current support. If calculated based on the cumulative increase since March, the 23.6% and 38.2% callback levels are 145 and 142.10 levels. As for the current key, resistance is expected to be the 150 mark or even the highest level of 151.94 before Japan intervened in October last year. The next class will point directly to the 155 mark.
    
Forecast range:
Resistance 150.00** – 151.94 – 155.00
Support 148.80 – 147.40 – 145.00 – 142.10

Highlights of the week:
on Monday/
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida: Unwilling to see excessive exchange rate fluctuations
Bank of Japan President: Policy must remain loose to continue achieving price targets

Tuesday/
September monthly report released by the Japanese government

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said the authorities would not rule out any options if the exchange rate continues to fluctuate excessively

Japan’s business-to-business service prices rose 2.1% year-on-year in August

Any questions? contact our professional analysis team