JPY – USD/JPY Forms Initial Double Bottom Pattern

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that some of President Trump's tariff measures lacked sufficient legal basis, leading to a further shift in policy path. Increased trade uncertainty triggered a resurgence of risk aversion in the market, with funds flowing into traditional safe-haven assets, pushing the yen stronger. Meanwhile, market expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan in the coming months continue to build, also providing support for the yen.

The USD/JPY pair continued to rise last week, reaching 155.65 on Friday, but subsequently gave back gains to around 155. The pair bottomed out above 152 in mid-February, with a low of 152.26 on February 12th and 152.09 on January 27th. Technically, this appears to form a double bottom pattern. Furthermore, the RSI and Stochastic Oscillator are also trending upwards, suggesting further upside potential for USD/JPY in the short term. The immediate resistance levels to watch are the 50-day moving average at 156 and 157.20, followed by 157.80 and 158.50, with the next key level at 159.50-160. The immediate supporting levels are expected at 154 and 153, followed by 152 and 151, and then 150.50 and the 250-day moving average at 149.90.

Forecast Range:
Resistance: 156.00 – 157.20 – 157.80 – 158.50 – 159.50 - 160.00
Support: 154.00 – 153.00 - 152.00* – 151.00 - 150.50 - 149.90

Key Focus:
Thursday: Japan December Leading Indicators (13:00)
Friday: Tokyo February CPI (07:30)
Japan January Industrial Production (07:50)
Japan January Retail Sales (07:50)
 

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