JPY – The yen continues to weaken, testing support at 150

U.S. employment data will be released on October 3rd. Following a series of dismal employment figures, a Reuters poll predicts non-farm payrolls will increase by 39,000 in September, with the unemployment rate at 4.3%. This data is one of the key figures ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting at the end of October, following policymakers' first interest rate cut since 2025 in mid-September.

The Bank of Japan will release its Tankan survey on Wednesday, a closely watched indicator of business confidence. The survey has received increased attention after BOJ board member Junko Nakagawa called the September survey "extremely important" in a speech last month. Following the hawkish shift in September, the market is already considering the possibility of an October rate hike.

USD/JPY was approaching the 150 last week. The chart shows that it has been trading sideways in the 145-149 range for the past month. However, the RSI and Stochastics indicators have been rising, suggesting further upward momentum. The exchange rate has already broken above the 250-day moving average, a level that has capped previous rallies. This breakout marks the end of the recent sideways consolidation. Extensions to the 150 and even the March 28 high of 151.22 are expected, with further increases to 152 and 153.50 expected. The support currently lies at 148.50 and 147.20, followed by 146.70 and 145.50.

Forecast range:
Resistance: 150.00 – 151.22 – 152.00 – 153.50
Support: 148.50 – 147.20 – 146.70 – 145.50

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