XAU – Pay close attention to the situation in Israel and Iran, gold continues to be supported by risk aversion

The high and low of London gold this year were 3500.05/2613.9 U.S. dollars respectively. Due to news such as Israel and Iran, the price of gold moved at a high level in June; and technically broke through the resistance level of 3358 and reached a high of $3446.60, confirming that the trend of gold will continue to rise. At present, the sequence of medium and short-term average lines is from 2955.89 on April 7, 2025 to $3500.05 US dollars on April 22, 2025, and then fell back to 3120.14 US dollars on May 15, 2025. The first extension of 61.8% is $3455, and the next wave has the right to test $3600, $3681 and $3760 levels.

Don't estimate the top of the unilateral rise. The price of gold tends to try higher again, but it may need to be adjusted, so it should be a small rebound and a big rise. The lower dividing line is $3308 and the 50-day moving average of $3285 that this wave has not lost. Gold tends to test $3508 and the next target of $3554. In addition, news such as the intensification of tensions in the Middle East continues, and it is estimated that the price of gold tends to open higher on Monday. It is expected to run between $3400 and $3500 in the early part of this week. On Monday, $3465 is estimated to be the first resistance and $3489. I personally like to use the 9-day moving average as a reference. The current 9-day moving average is at the level of $3356 as a support position.

Israel and Iran launched the latest attacks on each other on Saturday, and US President Trump warned not to attack any U.S. targets and said that the Israeli-Iranian conflict could be easily ended. Iran and the United States were scheduled to resume negotiations in Oman on Sunday, but they have been canceled. According to Politico, the Israeli ambassador to the United States said on Sunday that Israel does not intend to limit or quickly end the war with Iran. He said, "Our goal is not to contain the war, but to win this war."

The Israeli-Iranian conflict has driven the market's risk aversion demand. Investors will still pay attention to whether the situation in the Middle East will continue to deteriorate this week. In addition, Trump has repeatedly urged Powell to cut interest rates. The market will focus on the Fed's decision this week. It is generally expected that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged. The Fed's latest economic and dot plot forecasts will also attract much attention.

London Gold June 16-20 Forecast range:
Resistance 3454 – 3481 – 3508 - 3531 – 3554
Support 3401 – 3378 – 3356 - 3302 – 3248

London Gold June 16
Forecast Early range: 3423 – 3441
Resistance 3465 – 3476 – 3489
Support 3411 – 3399 – 3378

SPDR Gold Trust gold holdings:
June 2 – 933.07 tons
June 3 – 935.65 tons
June 4 – 935.65 tons
June 5 – 935.65 tons
June 6 – 934.21 tons
June 9 – 936.22 tons
June 10 – 935.91 tons
June 11 – 934.19 tons
June 12 – 937.91 tons
June 13 – 940.49 tons

16/6 AM London Gold Fix: $3420.2 
16/6 PM London Gold Fix: $3435.35

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