EUR/USD rises for the first time in three months

The dollar climbed on Friday, heading for its first weekly gain since mid-March, after China exempted some U.S. imports from tariffs, boosting investor expectations that a detente in the trade war between the world's two largest economies may be closer. Last Tuesday, President Trump hinted at easing the trade war with China, saying direct talks had begun. China has exempted some U.S. imports from 125% tariffs, some companies that have received notices of the changes said on Friday, asking them to determine which goods qualify. Trump said in an interview with Time magazine published on Friday that his administration was negotiating a tariff deal with China and that Chinese President Xi Jinping had spoken with him. However, China's Foreign Ministry refuted this claim, reiterating that China and the United States have not held consultations or negotiations on the tariff issue.

Regarding the trend of EUR/USD, the technical chart shows that the RSI and stochastic index have fallen back from the overbought area, indicating adjustment pressure. The resistance level will return to 1.1450 and 1.1550 levels, and the next level will be 1.1620 and 1.17. The key level is expected to be at 1.18 level. The nearest support below will firstly focus on 1.13, as the lows of the past two days stopped here. In addition, if calculated based on the cumulative increase from the low of 1.0731 on March 27 to the high of last week, the retracement levels of 23.6% and 38.2% are 1.1375 and 1.1250, and the expansion to 50% and 61.8% are at 1.1150 and 1.1050. The key is the 25-day moving average of 1.11, where the euro found support at the beginning of this month.

Forecast range:
Resistance 1.1450 – 1.1550 – 1.1620 – 1.1700 – 1.1800
Support 1.1300 - 1.1250 – 1.1150 - 1.1100* - 1.1000*

Focus:
Tuesday: German GfK Consumer Confidence Index for May (14:00)
Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index for April (18:00)

Wednesday: German import prices and real retail sales in March (14:00)
Germany's unemployed population and unemployment rate in April (15:55)
Germany's first quarter GDP preliminary value (16:00)
Eurozone first quarter GDP first estimate (17:00)
German CPI and HICP for April (20:00)

Friday: Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for April
Eurozone April HICP preliminary value, March unemployment rate (17:00)

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