CAD – Oil Price Retreat Weighs on the Canadian Dollar

The USD/CAD pair reached a high of 1.4139 on November 6th last year and 1.4130 on November 21st. After a six-month pullback and rebound, it is now approaching this level again. A break below this level could trigger another upward wave, targeting 1.4240 and then 1.43, with the next target at 1.4420 and then 1.46. Short-term support is seen at 1.4020. The RSI and Stochastic Oscillator are in severely overbought territory, indicating an increasing risk of correction. The upward trendline at 1.3920 is considered key support; next, watch the 25-day moving average at 1.3870. A break below both would confirm a pullback, with further targets at 1.38 and 1.36.

Forecast range:
Resistance: 1.4140 – 1.4240 – 1.4300 – 1.4420- 1.4600
Support: 1.4020 - 1.3920* - 1.3870* – 1.3800- 1.3600

This Week's News Highlights:

15/6
Canadian Housing Starts in May: 261,400 Units
Canadian Wholesale Sales (MoM): +0.6%
Canadian Manufacturing Sales (MoM): +4.2%

17/6
Canadian New Housing Price Index (YoY): -2.4%, (MoM): -0.3%

Focus:

Thursday
Canadian Industrial Product Price Index (September) (20:30)
Canadian Raw Material Price Index (September) (20:30)

Friday
Canadian Retail Sales (September) (20:30)

Any questions? contact our professional analysis team