EUR – The euro remains capped at 1.18; focus on U.S. jobs data tonight

The dollar initially fell on Thursday before stabilizing, as investors weighed hopes for easing tensions with Iran. Market sentiment was dampened after the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran would not accept the US's so-called "unrealistic" plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Separately, Iran's Supreme Joint Military Command issued a statement claiming that the U.S. attacked an Iranian oil tanker and another vessel entering the Strait of Hormuz, violating the existing ceasefire agreement. Iran warned it would respond forcefully and without hesitation to any attack. The statement also accused the US of launching airstrikes against civilian areas with the cooperation of some regional countries.

Tonight's focus will be on the U.S. April jobs report. The market consensus is for 62,000 new jobs added in April, a significant drop from the 178,000 added in March; the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%.

The euro/dollar exchange rate chart shows the RSI and stochastic oscillator hovering in the middle range, suggesting that the euro is likely to remain volatile in the short term. The current 1.18 level remains a key resistance reference; last week's rebound failed to break through this level. The next resistance levels are forecasted to be 1.1930 and 1.20. The supporting levels will be seen at the 250-day moving average at 1.1660 and 1.1580, with the next level expected at 1.1520. The key support lies at the 1.14 level.

Forcasted range:
Resistance: 1.1800 - 1.1930 - 1.2000 – 1.2080
Support: 1.1660 - 1.1580 – 1.1520 - 1.1400**
News summary

6/5
France March Industrial Production MoM +1.0%
France April Services PMI: 46.5
France April Composite PMI: 47.6
Germany April Services PMI: 46.9
Germany April Composite PMI: 48.4
Eurozone April Services PMI: 47.6
Eurozone April Composite PMI: 48.8
Eurozone March PPI MoM +3.4%, YoY +2.1%

7/5
Germany March Factory Orders MoM +5.0%, YoY +6.3%
Eurozone March Retail Sales MoM -0.1%, YoY +1.2%

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