EUR Euro - The US dollar continues its adjustment pattern, the euro slowly explores higher

The dollar fell on Thursday, with the U.S. dollar index hitting a three-week low of 103.43. The dollar has been trending higher since the start of the year as strong economic growth and stubbornly high inflation led traders to postpone expectations for when the Federal Reserve will begin easing policy, but it has generally retreated after hitting a three-month high last week. Next week's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index will be the next important data and will provide clues about the Fed's policy. Minutes of the Federal Reserve's January meeting released on Wednesday showed that most policymakers were concerned about the risk of cutting interest rates prematurely. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson said Thursday that he will look at a range of economic indicators to determine whether the time is right to cut interest rates, rather than focusing on a single indicator.

After hitting below 1.0693 last week, the EURUSD has been rising again step by step, returning to the 1.08 level this week. However, since the key support of 1.07 is still not far away, we still need to be cautious. Once this area is clearly lost, the euro's decline since the end of last year will continue. Subsequent support will be seen at 1.0650 and 1.05, and the next level reference is 1.0450. level. However, the chart shows that the RSI and stochastic index are still rising, the MACD indicator has just broken above the signal line, and the exchange rate has broken above the downward trend line for a month. Therefore, it is expected that the EURUSD will tend to continue to rise, that is, in the past more than a month. The downward trend since then is expected to reverse significantly. Calculated by the golden ratio, the 23.6% and 38.2% rebound levels are at 1.08 and 1.0865, and the ranges extending to 50% and 61.8% are at 1.0920 and 1.0970. The key resistance refers to the 1.10 mark and even the high of 1.1139 on December 18 last year.

Forecast range:
Resistance 1.0800 - 1.0865 - 1.0920 - 1.0970 - 1.1000 - 1.1139
Supports 1.0700 - 1.0650 - 1.0500 - 1.0450

Highlights of the week:
19/2
Bundesbank monthly economic report: Germany's economy may be in recession

ECB Executive Member Schnabel: Low productivity in the euro zone may slow down inflation

20/2
Eurozone posted seasonally adjusted current account surplus of 32 billion euros in December
Eurozone’s unseasonally adjusted current account surplus was 42.7 billion euros in December

22/2
The Eurozone's January HICP fell by 0.4% from the previous month and rose by 2.8% from the same period last year.
The preliminary Eurozone comprehensive PMI value for February was 48.9
The preliminary value of the Eurozone manufacturing PMI in February was 46.1
The preliminary value of the Eurozone services PMI in February was 50.0

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