AUD Australian Dollar - RBA warns further rate hikes may be needed even as downside risks intensify

Governor Philip Lowe of the Reserve Bank of Australia further warned that further interest rate hikes are possible in the future to ease rising price pressures, even if the risk of a sharp economic downturn intensifies. Lowe reiterated that further tightening may still be needed to keep inflation under control, with some analysts now expecting rates to peak at 4.6%, while Goldman Sachs expects rates to peak at 4.85% - much higher than many banks had predicted a few weeks ago 4.35%. Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.2% in the first quarter from the previous quarter, slowing down from 0.5% in the previous quarter and lower than the forecast of 0.3%.

In terms of technical trends, the chart shows that both the RSI and the stochastic index have risen, and the MACD indicator has also broken the signal line. It is expected that the AUD/USD will still have further upward momentum. Calculated by the golden ratio, the 50% and 61.8% rebounds are at the 0.6655 and 0.6690 levels. The key resistance refers to the 250-day moving average of 0.6740 and the May high of 0.6818, and the next level points to the 0.70 mark. The support levels are estimated at 0.6570 and 0.6450, and the larger support is estimated at the 0.6380 level.

This week's news:
RBA hikes rates to 11-year high, warns further tightening may be needed

Focus:
Wednesday: Australia Q1 GDP (09:30)
Thursday: Australia April Trade Data (09:30)

Estimated volatility:
Resistance 0.6555 - 0.6690 - 0.6740 - 0.6818 – 0.7000
Support 0.6500* – 0.6270 – 0.6200

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