AUD – Employment data supports the U.S. dollar, the Australian dollar rebound is limited
Data released last Friday showed strong U.S. employment revisions and a drop in the unemployment rate, which was seen as reflecting a solid labor market, although overall job gains fell short of economists' expectations. The U.S. added 143,000 non-farm jobs in January, lower than the 170,000 expected by economists; the unemployment rate was 4.0%, the lowest since May; the average hourly wage increased by 0.5% in January, and the annual rate increased by 4.1%, higher than the expected 3.8%. Other data on Friday showed that U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly dropped to a seven-month low in February and inflation expectations rose sharply. Coming this week, U.S. consumer and producer price inflation data for January are expected to provide the next clue as to whether price pressures are continuing to ease toward the Fed's 2% annual target. Money market traders are less confident the Fed will deliver two 25 basis point rate cuts this year, with expectations for 37 basis point cuts by the end of December.
As can be seen from the technical chart, the Australian dollar is temporarily constrained at 0.63, so we need to be careful that if we fail to break through this level again and again in the short term, we may face adjustment pressure. The supporting level reference is 0.6160 and Monday's low of 0.6085, and then the focus will be on the psychological level of 0.60; the medium-term key point is 0.58. In terms of resistance levels, based on the cumulative decline since October last year, the rebound range of 23.6% and 38.2% is 0.6285 and 0.6410, and the expansion to 50% and 61.8% is 0.6510 and 0.6615.
Forecast range:
Resistance 0.6300 – 0.6410 - 0.6510 – 0.6615
Support 0.6160 - 0.6085 – 0.6000** - 0.5800
Focus:
Tuesday: Australia's January NAB Business Conditions Index and Business Confidence Index (08:30)
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