XAU  - The U.S. dollar's gains are gradually tiring, gold and silver are preparing for a counterattack

Data released last week showed that U.S. producer prices rebounded in October, another sign that the pullback in inflation has stalled. It was announced on Thursday that the U.S. final demand producer price index (PPI) rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year in October; the core PPI in October rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.5% year-on-year. Data released on Wednesday showed consumer inflation was essentially flat in October. The data did not change the Fed's view that it will cut interest rates for a third time next month, but prompted economists to expect a rise in October's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Fed tracks to assess progress towards its 2% inflation target. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday that continued economic growth, a solid job market and an inflation rate that remains above its 2% target mean the Fed does not need to rush to cut interest rates. Powell said that while Fed staff may begin to assess the possible impact of proposals such as tariffs proposed by Trump during the campaign, that will take time to understand and will not become clear until new laws or executive orders are in place. . After Powell's speech, traders reduced their bets on the Federal Reserve's December interest rate cut, with the interest rate futures contract market pricing in a 60% chance of a 25 basis point cut in policy rates next month, down from a previous probability of close to 70%. The U.S. dollar has been dominant since the election, but it is also important to note that as major currency pairs experience technical divergences as they test key levels, it is estimated that the U.S. dollar's current rally may start to look tired.

London gold performed sluggishly last week, hitting its lowest point since September 12 at $2,536.70 on Thursday. By Friday, it had fallen for six consecutive trading days and hit a two-month low, suppressed by the strong rise in the U.S. dollar. Gold plummeted by nearly $200 after the U.S. Republican Party won a landslide victory in the November 5 election, as President-elect Trump's proposed tariffs were seen as a potential driver of inflation, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to slow its pace of interest rate cuts. Weakened investor interest in gold. In terms of technical trends, the price of gold clearly fell below the 2700 mark and the upward trend line at the beginning of last week, which is triggering another wave of adjustment trends. It once fell to a two-month low on Thursday, and rebounded slightly in late trading, which also drove RSI and stochastic index showed initial signs of recovery from the severely oversold area. The resistance level will look back at $2,580 and $2,620, with the greater resistance expected to be the 50-day moving average of $2,650 or even $2,675. From the high of $2790 on October 31 to now, the gold price has fallen by more than 250 US dollars in just half a month. The key turning point so far will be the 100-day moving average and the $2500. The 100-day moving average has been an important reference indicator for gold price trends in recent years. In November last year and February this year, gold prices also found important support on this indicator, so the 100-day moving average currently located at $2,545 is also particularly important. As for the half-hundred mark of $2500, its iconic psychological level has naturally also attracted attention. If this area cannot hold the decline of gold prices during this wave, it may show that gold prices may reverse not only the short-term, but even the mid-term trend; and then extend downward. The support will be seen at the September low of $2,471.80 and $2,450.

London gold forecast range from November 18th to 22nd:
Resistance 2586 – 2610 – 2635 – 2685
Support 2536 – 2486 – 2461 – 2438

London Gold November 18
Forecast early range: 2556 – 2563
Resistance 2571 – 2584 – 2595
Support 2550 – 2542 – 2531

SPDR Gold Trust gold holdings:
November 4 – 888.63 tons
November 5 – 886.91 tons
November 6 – 883.46 tons
November 7 – 880.59 tons
November 8 – 876.85 tons
November 11 – 871.97 tons
November 12 – 870.53 tons
November 13 – 868.52 tons
November 14 – 867.37 tons
November 15 – 869.93 tons

15/11 AM London Gold Fix: $2566.7
15/11 PM London Gold Fix: $2571.8

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