Economic Indicators

14：00 German Factory Orders (MoM) (Aug)‧Fcst-2.0%‧Prev+2.9%
14：00 UK Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Sep)‧Fcst+0.4%‧Prev+0.3%
14：00 UK Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Sep)‧Fcst+5.2%‧Prev+4.3%
16：30 EZ Sentix Investor Confidence (Oct)‧Fcst-15.9‧Prev-15.4
17：00 EZ Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)‧Fcst+0.2%‧Prev+0.1%
17：00 EZ Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug)‧Fcst+1.0%‧Prev-0.1%
22：00 US CB Employment Trends Index (Sep)‧Prev109.04

XAU London Gold – Gold price consolidating in high range, waiting for the development of the situation in the Middle East

The US dollar continued to rebound last week, with the US dollar index rising to 102.09 on Thursday, after hitting a 14-month low of 100.15 on September 27. Recent data shows that the US economy remains solid, and the safe-haven demand brought about by concerns about the escalation of tensions in the Middle East has also boosted the US dollar. In addition, the US dollar has also benefited from currencies such as the euro, pound and yen digesting more dovish central bank expectations. Improved economic data and more hawkish comments made by Fed Chairman Powell last Monday have reduced market expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 50 basis points at the November meeting. By last Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor released a key employment report, which showed that U.S. employment growth accelerated in September and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, further reducing the need for the Fed to maintain a sharp interest rate cut in the remaining two meetings this year. The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 254,000 in August, and the July increase was revised up to 159,000; the average annual salary increased by 4.0% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, both higher than expected. After the data was released, the U.S. dollar rose significantly, refreshing a six-week high above 102.60.

Gold prices in London were stable in a narrow range last week, as the safe-haven demand brought about by the escalation of tensions in the Middle East offset the pressure of a stronger dollar, after investors downplayed expectations of another sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve Board (FED). Gold prices have been around the $2,650 level for many days, hitting a record high of $2,685 on September 26. In terms of technical trends, the recent correction in gold prices has not yet destroyed the upward trend of the past few months, and even the 25-day moving average and the upward trend line are safely maintained; while the RSI and stochastic index have evolved into a sideways trend in the median range, and it is estimated that gold prices may still be trapped in a narrow range of competition in the short term. The current resistance is estimated at $2672 and $2685, and the next level will point to the $2700 to $2750. The near support is expected to be $2640. If calculated based on the cumulative increase in September, the adjustment range of 23.6% and 38.2% is $2635 and $2603, and the expansion of 50% and 61.8% is $2578 and $2553. The upward trend line support of $2584 is a key technical position, and it is also the 25-day moving average position.

London Gold's predicted range from October 7 to 11:
Resistance 2663 – 2676 – 2688 - 2698 – 2723
Support 2650 – 2639 – 2628 - 2615 – 2604

London Gold October 7
Predicted early range: 2651 – 2661
Resistance 2671 – 2680 – 2689 – 2708
Support 2642 – 2633 – 2623 – 2613

SPDR Gold Trust gold holdings:
September 30 – 871.94 tons
October 1 – 874.82 tons
October 2 – 874.82 tons
October 3 – 877.41 tons
October 4 – 876.26 tons

4/10 AM London Gold Fix: $2657.5
4/10 PM London Gold Fix: $2650.05

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