New York Oil Futures - OPEC+ cuts production less than expected, oil prices fall again

Oil prices fell more than 2% on Thursday after OPEC+ producers agreed to voluntarily cut production in the first quarter of next year, but the reduction was lower than market expectations. U.S. crude oil futures settled down $1.90, or 2.4%, at $75.96, after falling 6.2% in November. OPEC+, composed of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, has agreed to voluntarily reduce production in the first quarter of next year, with the total production reduction reaching about 2.2 million barrels per day. OPEC+ oil production accounts for more than 40% of the global total. The plans include extending voluntary supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia by 1.3 million barrels per day. Representatives at the meeting said earlier that new further production cuts were being discussed by as much as 2 million barrels per day. Oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait, Kazakhstan and Algeria have stated that they will gradually increase production after the first quarter if market conditions permit. At the same time, crude oil production in the United States, the world's largest oil producer, continued to grow. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that U.S. crude oil production increased by 1.7% in September to a record 13.24 million barrels per day.

As seen on the technical charts, oil prices have been fluctuating in a range recently, but given that the MACD indicator has just broken above the signal line, oil prices are expected to remain slightly stable in the short term. The current support is at $75 and $74, and the larger support is at $72 and $70. The resistance level is estimated to be the 200-day moving average of 78.10 and the $80 that is not expected to be exceeded in the middle of the month. The next level is expected to be the 100-day moving average of 82.50.

Forecast range:
Resistance 78.10 - 80.00* - 82.50
Support 75.00 – 74.00 – 72.00 – 70.00*
                        
Highlights of the week:
EIA: U.S. gasoline inventories increased by 1.764 million barrels, distillate inventories increased by 5.217 million barrels, and crude oil inventories increased by 1.609 million barrels; U.S. refinery capacity utilization increased by 2.8 percentage points during the week

30/11 OPEC+ oil-producing countries agreed to voluntarily reduce production by about 2.2 million barrels per day, and Brazil was invited to join the alliance

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