XAU – London Gold Maintains Uptrend Despite Minor Pullback

Fed Chairman Powell maintained a cautious tone last week, stating that the Fed still needs to balance the risks of high inflation and a weak labor market in its future interest rate decisions.  San Francisco Fed President Daly echoed other Fed officials, saying that while further rate cuts are needed, the timing remains uncertain. With the future path of rate cuts unclear and lacking consensus, traders are no longer fully pricing in a rate cut next month. The dollar has strengthened since the Fed's rate cut last week. Stronger-than-expected US economic growth, initial jobless claims, and durable goods orders data last week dampened expectations for further monetary policy easing by the Fed this year. The US Commerce Department reported that US GDP growth for April-June was revised upward to 3.8% year-on-year, higher than the initial estimate of 3.3%. On Friday, US Commerce Department data showed that the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year in August, in line with expectations. The monthly PCE data was in line with expectations, although personal income and spending growth were 0.1 percentage points higher than expected. This data will not prevent the Fed from continuing its cautious approach to rate cuts at its October meeting. Just as concerns about the impact of US tariffs were starting to ease, Trump announced a new round of import tariffs last week, including a 100% tariff on branded pharmaceuticals. This week, the focus will be on the US non-farm payrolls data.

According to the World Gold Council, global gold ETF holdings reached 3,779.4 tons as of September 19, the highest level since August 2022.  Net inflows in the first and second quarters of this year were 226.6 tons and 170.5 tons, respectively, far exceeding the same period last year, injecting new momentum into gold prices. As of September 19, the top-performing gold ETF globally in terms of year-to-date inflows was the US-based SPDR Gold Shares, with gold demand increasing by 122.1 tons, bringing its total holdings to approximately 994.4 tons.  China's Huadong E-Fund Gold ETF also ranked among the top performers, with gold demand increasing by 28.2 tons, bringing its total holdings to approximately 74.7 tons. London gold rose from $3,682 on Monday to a record high of $3,790 on Tuesday before consolidating sideways. It closed the week at $3,759, up $75.91 or 2.06% for the week. As mentioned last week, gold was expected to continue its upward trend after stabilizing above $3,704, and after breaking above this level on Monday, the price remained above $3,704. This level will continue to be seen as a support level, while $3,874 is another resistance level. If it closes above this level, a new trend could emerge. However, considering the consolidation from April to the end of August, the 10% rise to $3,790 after breaking through $3,431 is not significant. Compared to stocks or other investment products, this 10% gain is relatively small, suggesting potential for further gains. Therefore, the upward trend in gold is expected to continue with minor corrections. Currently, the 9-day moving average at $3,714 and the 25-day moving average at $3,600 provide support, with a key support level at $3,640. As long as the price does not close below this level, it can be held. The immediate target is to break above last week's high, which is $3,950. This week, the price is expected to trade between $3,748 and $3,812. Resistance levels are at $3,855 and $3,910, while support levels are at $3,728 and $3,705. London Gold Price Forecast for September 29 to October 3:
Resistance Levels: 3780 – 3812 – 3834 – 3855
Support Levels: 3748 – 3728 – 3705 – 3672

London Gold, September 29:
Expected Early Forecast Range: 3758 – 3771
Resistance: 3784 – 3795 – 3808 – 3820
Support: 3748 – 3735 – 3722 – 3709

SPDR Gold Trust Gold Holdings:
September 22 – 1,000.57 tons
September 23 – 1,000.57 tons
September 24 – 996.85 tons
September 25 – 996.85 tons
September 26 – 1,005.725 tons

26/9 AM London Gold Fix: $3748.75
26/9 PM London Gold Fix: $3769.85 

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