XAU London Gold - Gold prices have fallen for days and are still in a weak trend
Data released by the United States on Thursday showed that the final annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in the second quarter was confirmed at 2.1%, in line with economists' expectations. Against the background of the Biden administration's push to return semiconductor manufacturing to the United States, a sharp upward revision in manufacturing business investment offset the impact of consumer spending growth being revised down to 0.8% from the previously reported 1.7%. First-quarter growth was revised to 2.2% from the previously reported 2.0%. The economy is expanding much faster than the roughly 1.8% rate that Fed policymakers consider non-inflationary. Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 525 basis points, and the current interest rate target range is 5.25%-5.50%. The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding food and energy, was confirmed to have risen 3.7% in the second quarter. Despite expected shutdowns and the temporary shock of a strike by autoworkers, the labor market is expected to remain tight for some time. The second report released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday showed that the number of initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased by 2,000 seasonally adjusted to 204,000 in the week ended September 23. Economists had forecast 215,000.
London gold fell to a six-month low of $1857.50 on Thursday, but as the dollar fell later, gold prices also slightly pared their losses to above the $1860 level. The focus now turns to Friday's U.S. inflation data to learn more about the Federal Reserve (FED)—policy clues. In addition, as the gold price fell below the psychological mark of $1900 in the middle of the week, and there is no clear sign of a technical turnaround, investors who choose to "rebound" are advised to set a moving stop loss as soon as the gold price rebounds to avoid loss risk.
Regarding technical trends, gold prices have fallen below the $1900 mark and the 250-day moving average this week. This is regarded as a signal unfavorable to gold prices in the medium term. However, the latest signs show that the RSI and stochastic index have just recovered from the oversold zone. There is an opportunity for gold prices to stabilize in the current market. The lower support is expected to be between US$1858 and US$1850; subsequent support will point to US$1827 and US$1810. The very critical position will be the US$1800 mark, which has not fallen below since 2023. As for the resistance level, look back to $1878 and the 250-day moving average of 1888. The next resistance level is expected to be $1900, and even the 25-day moving average of $1918.
SPDR Gold Trust gold holdings:
September 18 – 880.27 tons
September 19 – 878.83 tons
September 20 – 878.25 tons
September 21 – 878.83 tons
September 22 – 877.39 tons
September 25 – 876.52 tons
September 26 – 872.77 tons
September 27 – 873.64 tons
September 28 – 873.64 tons
Fixed price on the morning of September 28: 1874.10
Fixing price on the afternoon of September 28: 1873.55
London Gold September 29
Forecast early range: 1860 – 1871
Resistance 1876 – 1888 – 1899
Support 1853 – 1844 – 1833
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