XAU – Gold Rises Amidst Weak Data Expectations as Government Reopening Expects

US President Trump signed a temporary funding bill, ending the longest government shutdown in US history. The bill provides continued funding for the federal government, ensuring most government agencies have operating funds until January 30, 2026.

For weeks, policymakers and investors have been facing a data gap due to the disruption caused by the U.S. government shutdown. With the government reopening, investors anticipated that September's jobs data would be among the first delayed releases. However, the White House said Wednesday that October's jobs and inflation reports may not be released due to the shutdown. White House spokesman Levitt told reporters at a briefing that the shutdown had interfered with the collection of federal statistics.

Gold rose on Wednesday, returning to the $4,200. The US House vote to reopen the government will also resume the release of economic data, which is likely to show a weakening US economy and strengthen expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. The 42-day shutdown dragged down the economy and resulted in a lack of government data, prompting policymakers and markets to rely on private indicators to gauge the economic situation. ADP weekly employment data released on Tuesday showed that private sector employers lost an average of 11,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending October 25, indicating continued weakness in the labor market. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders currently see about a 64% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting.

Technically, gold prices had been trading within a range for over a week, repeatedly encountering resistance around the 4030 level. However, Monday's rise clearly broke through this range, even surpassing the 25-day moving average. This was accompanied by rising RSI and Stochastic Oscillators, with the MACD also pointing upwards towards the signal line, indicating a bullish signal in the short to medium term. In the short term, gold prices encountered resistance at $4150 over the past two days, but finally broke through on Wednesday night, extending gains to $4200. Gold prices are expected to continue their upward trend. The immediate support levels are expected at $4178 and $4159, with further support at 4142 and 4122, and then $4102. Resistance levels are expected at $4215 and $4235, with the next level at $4255, and further support at $4272 and $4289.

London Gold, November 13th:

Forecast early range: 4178 – 4215
Resistance: 4235 – 4255 – 4272 – 4289
Support: 4159 – 4142 – 4122 – 4102

SPDR Gold Trust Gold Holdings:

November 3 – 1,041.78 tons
November 4 – 1,038.63 tons
November 5 – 1,038.63 tons
November 6 – 1,040.35 tons
November 7 – 1,042.06 tons
November 10 – 1,042.06 tons
November 11 – 1,046.36 tons
November 12 – 1,046.64 tons

12/11 AM London Gold Fix: $4120.1 
12/11 PM London Gold Fix: $4136.75

Any questions? contact our professional analysis team