XAU  – The November dividing line for gold is set at $4051

The U.S. dollar consolidated narrowly in early trading last week before rebounding on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday amid disagreement and indicated it would restart its Treasury purchase program to a limited extent due to signs of liquidity tightness in the money market. Fed Chairman Powell expressed caution regarding the future policy path. He stated that a further rate cut in December was not a certainty, far from it, and that there was no predetermined path for policy. Since the Fed rate cut was already expected, Powell's remarks reduced market expectations for another rate cut in December and boosted the dollar. Traders have reduced their bets on another rate cut at the Fed's next policy meeting on December 10. On Thursday, US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks in Busan, where the two leaders had a positive atmosphere and agreed to exchange visits next year. As details of the talks gradually emerged, stock markets fluctuated, but the overall market reaction was muted. While most investors viewed the meeting outcome positively, market participants remained cautious about the duration of the thaw in US-China trade relations. Furthermore, the two sides failed to reach an agreement on core issues.

Gold prices continued their correction early last week after hitting a record high. Starting at $4108, prices fell to as low as $3886 before gradually stabilizing and ultimately closing at $4001.7. This upward wave has accumulated gains of 32.3%-34%, and has currently retraced approximately 11.3%. Despite a rebound before the weekend, gold prices failed to regain the 25-day moving average and are currently below both the 25-day and 9-day moving averages, indicating an overall trend towards sideways consolidation or a slightly weaker direction. Key support lies at the 50-day moving average of $3820, which represents the 50% retracement level of this upward wave; therefore, the $3820-$3825 range is expected to be a significant support area. The Bollinger Bands' middle line is at $3989, with upper and lower bands at $4043 and $3935 respectively, indicating that the current price is oscillating between the lower and middle bands of the range.

Entering November, the monthly dividing line is set at $4051. If the closing price fails to break through this level effectively, gold prices are likely to further decline to $3888 and $3804, and may even test $3721. Conversely, if the price can break through the 25-day moving average of $4040 and further stabilize above $4051, it is expected to continue its upward trend, challenging $4165 and $4282, a key area where the previous upward trend line has turned into resistance.

Short-term charts show resistance levels at $4076 and $4116, with immediate resistance at $4008. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate between $3945 and $4056 in the early part of this week, with the major resistance levels at $4112 and $4165, and supporting levels at $3891 and $3834.

Gold November Forecast Range:

Resistance: 4051 – 4165 – 4282 – 4365
Support: 3968 – 3888 – 3721 – 3662

Gold November 3-7 Forecast Range:

Resistance: 4055 – 4112 – 4165 – 4221

Support: 3999 – 3945 – 3891 – 3834

London Gold November 3:

Forecast Early Range: 3985 – 4005

Resistance: 4021 – 4038 – 4058
Support: 3965 – 3948 – 3932

SPDR Gold Trust Gold Holdings:
October 20 – 1,058.66 tons
October 21 – 1,058.66 tons
October 22 – 1,052.37 tons
October 23 – 1,052.37 tons
October 24 – 1,046.93 tons
October 27 – 1,038.92 tons
October 28 – 1,038.92 tons
October 29 – 1,036.05 tons
October 30 – 1,040.35 tons
October 31 – 1,039.20 tons

31/10 AM London Gold Fix: $4013.2
31/10 PM London Gold Fix: $4011.5 

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