XAU – Gold Prices Fluctuate as Markets Cautiously Await US-Iran Talks

The two-week temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran is about to expire, and the timing of a second round of negotiations and whether the ceasefire can be extended have become a major focus of attention. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf stated that US President Trump, through imposing blockades and violating the ceasefire agreement, is attempting to turn the negotiating table into a surrender table for Iran, or to find a pretext for reigniting war. He emphasized that Iran will not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats and stated that in the past two weeks, Iran has prepared to play new cards on the battlefield. Currently, the US is frequently announcing plans to send a delegation to the negotiations, but Iran has refused to negotiate, questioning the US's lack of sincerity. Iran once announced a conditional temporary opening of the Strait of Hormuz, but this did not result in the US lifting its blockade of Iranian ports.

US President Trump stated that Vice President Vance departed on Monday and negotiations are expected to resume on Tuesday. However, Trump later indicated that he was unlikely to extend the two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran, increasing the urgency for negotiators to reach an agreement to end the war. Additionally, tonight's release of the US March retail sales report should be closely watched. March retail sales are expected to rise 1.4% month-on-month, higher than February's 0.6%.

As for the gold, at the beginning of this week, the price fluctuations remain narrow, even continuing the sideways pattern seen this month, reflecting the market's anticipation of new developments in the Iranian situation. Last Friday, gold prices encountered resistance at the 50-day moving average and fell back. Currently, the 50-day moving average is at $4883, and together with the $4900 level, it will be considered a significant top to the sideways pattern. Before failing to hold above this level, further price pullbacks cannot be ruled out. Support is seen at the 100-day moving average of $4735. Technically, gold prices are forming a triangle pattern, with the upper and lower boundaries at $4888 and $4788 respectively. Currently, the market expects gold prices to remain within a range, and a significant one-sided rise or fall is not anticipated. Short-term strategies should focus on trading within the range. Short-term resistance is estimated at $4833 and $4864, with stronger resistance at $4878 and $4891. The supporting levels are seen at $4801 and $4788, with stronger support at $4774 and $4741.

Gold April 21: Forecasted Early Trading Range: 4801 – 4833
Resistance: 4864 – 4878 – 4891
Support: 4788 – 4774 – 4741

SPDR Gold Trust Holdings:
April 13 – 1,047.19 tons
April 14 – 1,049.48 tons
April 15 – 1,051.76 tons
April 16 – 1,052.91 tons
April 17 – 1,060.62 tons
April 20 – 1,059.76 tons

20/4 AM London Gold Fix: $4784.1 
20/4 PM London Gold Fix: $4813.55 

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