XAU – Gold Stabilizes Again, Challenging the Top of a Triangle Pattern

Gold fell to a low of $3959 on Friday before rebounding, reaching $4140 in early trading on Wednesday. This may have been due to bargain hunting, but renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran have significantly increased volatility in commodity markets, leading some funds to flow back into gold, a traditional safe-haven asset. The market continues to focus on developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict. The U.S. Central Command has recently continued its actions against Iranian targets, while Iran has indicated it will expand its countermeasures, and its armed forces have announced possible restrictions on some maritime transport activities. However, the Federal Reserve's interest rate path remains a crucial factor influencing the medium-term trend of gold; a high-interest-rate environment may limit the upside potential for gold.

From a technical perspective, gold prices tested the bottom support of a sensitive triangle pattern last Friday and into the beginning of this week. The low of $3959 last week was the primary defense level, which managed to hold at the beginning of the week, and even saw a significant rebound starting Tuesday. By Wednesday morning, it had even moved above the 25-day moving average, which is gradually turning upwards, and the RSI has rebounded, suggesting that gold prices may continue to stabilize in the short term. The top of the triangle is located at $4115; the 9-day moving average at $4048 provides some resistance, while the 25-day moving average is high at $4081. If we calculate a double bottom pattern rebound, the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level is at $4042, and the 100% target is $4103. Once gold prices can effectively break upwards, it will open up space to challenge $4178 and even $4235. On the other hand, regarding the magnitude of this pullback from the high, if measured using Fibonacci retracement, the 0.382 retracement level is at $3944, and the 50% retracement level is at $3507. If we extend the timeframe to a two-year period, the 50% retracement target is $3953, forming an overlapping support zone with the short-term 0.382 retracement level of $3944; the 0.618 retracement target is $3618.

Short-term resistance levels to watch are initially $4134 and $4148, with the next level at $4191. A stronger support level is estimated at $4234. The supporting levels are expected at $4107 and $4091, with the next level at $4061, followed by $4029.

London Gold Price Schedule, July 22:
Forecasted Early Trading Range: 4107 – 4134
Resistance: 4148 – 4191 – 4234
Support: 4091 – 4061* – 4029*

SPDR Gold Trust Holdings:
July 13 – 1,002.45 tons
July 14 – 1,004.5 tons
July 15 – 1,001.88 tons
July 16 – 1,001.88 tons
July 17 – 999.02 tons
July 20 – 1,003.59 tons
July 21 – 1,005.87 tons

21/7 AM London Gold Fix: $4063.2 
21/7 PM London Gold Fix: $4052.3 

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