Silver – Moving Averages and Current Price Highly Converging, Brewing for Volatile Trading

Silver fell from $78.8 in early trading last week, reaching a low of $71.8, before recovering to close at $75.3. Recently, silver prices have been intertwined with moving averages for several weeks, fluctuating around the $75 level. After a sharp drop from an early March high of $96.4 to $61, followed by a rebound to $89.3, and then a fall to $71.8 last Thursday, a large triangle pattern has formed. The upper downtrend line resistance is at $84.4, with the triangle's top at $86.1 and $87.4. The lower trendline support is at $74.8, with the triangle's bottom at $72.3.

Based on the last three touch points, a 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level is $78.4. A successful break above this level would target the 100-day moving average at $81.3 and a 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $82.4. This is why silver has failed to consistently hold above $78.4 since May. Current resistance levels are at $77.9 and $78.7, with short-term volatility narrowing to $74.8 to $75.8. The 25-day moving average has been overlapping for several days, suggesting further consolidation within a channel with upper and lower boundaries at $89.8 and $72.3 respectively. Another possible channel range is $87.4 to $67. Support levels to watch are the 200-day moving average at $66.7 and the 250-day moving average at $60.8. Resistance remains at the 25-day moving average at $77.3 and the previously support level at $80.1.

The key level for this month is $78, with potential upside targets at $81 and $84. Support lies at the recent closing price of $75.1 and the upward trendline at $72.3; a break below these levels could lead to tests of $66.7 and $63.4. The expected early-week trading range this week is between $73.4 and $77. The gold/silver ratio reached a high of 60.8 last week, but remains capped by resistance from the 25-week moving average, the 50-day moving average, and the downtrend line at 61.4. If it successfully challenges the 63.4 and 63.9 levels early this month, a further rebound is possible, with key supporting levels at 60.1 and 59.3.

London Silver June Forecasted Trading Range:
Resistance: 76.4 – 77.9 – 81 – 84.1 – 89.8
Support: 73.8 – 72.3 – 69.4 – 66.4 – 63.4

London Silver June 1st-5th Forecasted Trading Range:
Resistance: 76.1 – 77 – 78.8 – 80.4
Support: 74.4 – 73.4 – 71.8 – 70.1L

London Silver June 1st:
Forecasted Early Trading Range: 74.3 – 75.9
Resistance: 76.3 – 77.4 – 79.4
Support: 73.4 – 72.4 – 71.3

iShares Silver Trust Silver Holdings: May 18 – 15,189.04 tons
May 19 – 15,189.04 tons
May 20 – 15,189.04 tons
May 21 – 15,179.19 tons
May 22 – 15,214.37 tons
May 26 – 15,177.78 tons
May 27 – 15,177.78 tons
May 28 – 15,177.78 tons
May 29 – 15,118.69 tons

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