CHF - Markets bet the Fed will keep on hold for the next three meetings before starting to cut rates in May

Traders on Thursday continued to bet that the U.S. Federal Reserve would hold interest rates steady at its next three meetings before starting to cut them after a government report showed U.S. inflation had eased. The futures market linked to the Fed's policy rate predicts that there is a greater than 50% chance that the Fed will lower the target interest rate range for the first time from the current 5.25%-5.50% to 5%-5.25% in the May meeting. The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 3.0% in October from the same period last year, which was the smallest year-on-year increase since March 2021. It rose by 3.4% year-on-year in September. The interest rate futures market expects the Fed's policy rate to be 4.18% by the end of 2024.

The exchange rate of the US dollar against the Swiss franc fell after encountering resistance near the 0.91 at the beginning of this month. In the past half month, it has maintained a slow decline trends, and has stabilized near the 0.88 level in recent days. The technical chart shows that the RSI and stochastic index have just The oversold area showed an initial rebound, and it is expected that the US dollar against the Swiss franc is brewing a short-term rebound. The upward resistance will refer to the 0.89 and 250-day moving average levels of 0.9040. The next level will continue to focus on the early October high of 0.9244, and then the March 16 high of 0.9343. As for the largest support below, it is estimated to be at 0.8740 and 0.8690 levels, with the key pointing to 0.85.
    
Forecast range:
Resistance 0.8900 – 0.9040 – 0.9244 – 0.9343
Support 0.8800* - 0.8740 – 0.8690 – 0.8500*

Any questions? contact our professional analysis team